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2020年7月4日

Stephan Ortmann EJ GLOBAL plus 信觀點

An election under pandemic

The next parliamentary election in Singapore is slated for 10 July 2020 and nomination day was on 30 June 2020, with only nine days for the election campaign. This election is special because it is during the coronavirus outbreak. Singapore still counts around 200 new daily cases. While many of them are foreign workers, there are still a number of local community cases.

An election had not been necessary until 14 April 2021 but the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) decided now would be the most favorable time. In the previous election, the party was able to increase its support from 60.14% in 2011 to 69.86% in 2015. The improved result was in part due to the passing of Lee Kuan Yew and the country's 50th anniversary celebration in the same year.

In the 2020 election, PAP hopes that Singaporeans again do not want to rock the boat due to the pandemic and vote for the incumbent who promises stability and order. The opposition is also worried that the timing is not in its favor with some fearing that the opposition, which currently holds six seats, might be wiped out completely. The prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, however, asserted that this claim was merely a campaign trick to lure more people to vote for the opposition.

While the Singapore government had been praised for its response to the COVID-19 virus at an early stage, a massive outbreak in the foreign workers' dormitories not only revealed a blind spot in the anti-virus strategy but also drew attention to the massive exploitation of cheap labor that makes the city-state's high living standard possible. In addition, the government had in the early stages discouraged the wearing of masks for the healthy, which many saw as a wrong decision. Now, the government mandates masks.

The government provided a massive stimulus for Singaporeans, likely seen as beneficial by voters. As the cases sky-rocketed, the government changed its strategy and instituted a three-phased so-called circuit breaker. The first stage lasted until 1 June and was similar to a lockdown. Shortly after the second phase started, the government began with preparations for the election.

The winner of the next election is in little doubt. PAP has skewed the electoral system in its favor to such an extent that the opposition parties stand little chance of winning a majority. The government created an electoral system of multi-member and single-member constituencies that are carefully gerry-mandered prior to each election to create a favorable environment for the incumbent. On top, tight restrictions on party funding, an extremely short campaign period of just nine days, the lack of a separate local government, the lack of an independent electoral commission, a pro-government media, among other obstacles, make it extremely difficult for any party to successfully contest elections.

In order to deal with the pandemic, the Singapore government has made a number of additional technical changes that could work in favor of the ruling party. Rallies, which have drawn large crowds in previous elections, will not be allowed. Instead, candidates should hold their rallies online. While walkabouts are allowed, they must meet strict guidelines. The number of polling stations has been increased, making it more difficult for opposition parties to provide polling agents to monitor the election.

The opposition has also experienced a number of prominent changes. The Workers' Party (WP) faces significant changes in its Aljunied Group Representation Constituency. Former party leader Low Thia Khiang as well as the popular Chen Show Mao would be replaced by Gerald Giam and Leon Perera, who were both Non-Constituency Members of Parliament (NCMPs). WP will contest in 21 seats including the Hougang constituency, which is their longest held seat.

WP has faced significant challenges running its Town Council since it won Aljunied constituency in 2011. PAP dominates the state and economy to such an extent that dealing with local constituency issues is very difficult. In October 2019, three WP members of parliament were found liable of misusing town council funds. Justice Ramesh declared that the three had "failed to act in Aljunied-Hougang Town Council's best interests and had acted for extraneous purposes."

Another long-running party, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), is also likely to face difficulties. Despite gaining in public support in recent years, the party has yet to win a seat in an election since Chee Soon Juan became party leader in 1993.

This election sees ten opposition parties contesting, an unprecedented number that further dilutes the chance of a regime change. Smaller parties lack recognition by voters. One new party may be an exception: The Progress Singapore Party (PSP). The party was founded in 2019 by Tan Cheng Bock, who had been a popular candidate in the 2011 presidential election and only been narrowly defeated by the government's approved candidate.

One surprise member of PSP is Lee Hsien Yang, the younger son of late Lee Kuan Yew. Together with his sister Lee Wei Ling, the two had in 2017 accused their brother, Lee Hsien Loong, of using his office to negate his father's wish to have his house demolished. They also declared that they had lost all faith in their brother's ability to rule Singapore. After joining the opposition party, the younger Lee declared that PAP had “lost its way" and no longer the party that his father had founded. Nevertheless, he decided not to run as a candidate.

The PAP also already had its first hiccup. A new candidate, Ivan Lim, received numerous complaints about his past behavior online. Among them were allegations that he may have been involved in a corruption scandal. Lim denied the charges but eventually withdrew his candidacy under netizens' pressure.

While PAP is unlikely to be voted out, what remains to be of interest is whether the party will be able to win the same or even larger share of the popular vote than in the previous election.

 

Stephan Ortmann

Assistant Professor,Department of Asian and International Studies, CityU

 

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