2021年12月24日
兩位欄友談論今天的低息環境,都是重要而有趣的經濟分析。其中曾國平引述了最近有一項別開生面的研究:「一位哈佛歷史系畢業、由名家Niall Ferguson指導的新晉學者,翻箱倒籠查閱檔案,整理出長達800年全球主要國家的數據,得出一個驚人結果:由十四世紀初開始,實質利率平均每年以不足0.02%的慢速下降,由超過10厘的高峰,跌至今天近乎零。太陽底下原來有新事!在此『大歷史』的眼光下,什麼聯儲局貨幣政策,什麼總統政黨更替,什麼財政支出政府負債,以至嬰兒潮、戰爭等『長期』因素,通通都顯得渺小。」
今天,我就要討論一個低息的渺小政治解釋。
近月美國輿論不時提及滯脹(stagflation),這是七十年代令不少經濟學者頭痛的一個問題。所謂的「菲利普斯曲線」,指的是通貨膨脹與失業率關係的曲線呈穩定的負相關關係。既然低通脹與低失業率不能並存,政策含意便是寬鬆的貨幣政策有助降低失業率,但代價是通脹難免上升。換句話說,聯儲局以低息刺激經濟,要留意通脹壓力。然而,滯脹的經驗提醒我們,高通脹與高失業是可以並存的。「菲利普斯曲線」的分析破產,原來要多得當年的尼克遜(Richard Nixon)總統。
為了競選連任,尼克遜總統向聯儲局主席伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)施壓的證據,今天已是公開的秘密。六十年代尾七十年代初,在位的尼克遜總統面對美國的失業問題,儘管經濟已逐漸走出谷底,滯後的失業率還未顯著回落。為準備1972年的大選,尼克遜引用了「菲利普斯曲線」的邏輯,企圖製造低息環境降低失業率。1971年12月24日,半個世紀前的今天,尼克遜和美國行政管理和預算局主任舒爾茨(George Shultz)有以下的對話:
Nixon: Do you feel, as far as Arthur [Burns] and the money supply, we got that about as far as we can turn it right now, have we? I mean as far as my influence on him, that's what I'm really asking.
Shultz: Yeah. Well, you know he said that he, that they voted to increase it [the money supply].
Nixon: I know. And he said, I ...’What was his view, his words?
Shultz:‘And I'm on the line on that.’
Nixon: Well, you watch it and remind me. If I have to talk to him again, I'll do it. Next time I'll just bring him in.
Shultz: I'm sure we'll have to keep after him on it, but I think you hit it just about right, the other day. He was heading for the Virgin Islands [Nixon laughs] and wasn't going to do any good anyway to... because he wasn't going back to his Board at all.”
Nixon: Right.
Shultz: I think it was good to have that discussion about the procedures for appointment [to the Board] so that he sees that he doesn't have complete control.
Nixon: Well, he's just got to realize that it's, uh, like it is with [Supreme Court Chief Justice Warren] Burger... I'm not going to let him name his people.”
Shultz: Well, it's been quite a year, Mr. President.(Shultz最後的總結)
這段對話,暗示尼克遜政府不但已獲得聯儲局主席伯恩斯寬鬆貨幣政策的承諾,亦反映出政府還要安插親信入聯儲局,之後的滯脹都是歷史。
美國克林信大學經濟系副教授
香港大學香港經濟及商業策略研究所名譽高級研究員
中文大學香港亞太研究所經濟研究中心成員
https://www.facebook.com/economics3.0
(編者按:徐家健教授最新著作《經濟學說藝術投資》現已發售)
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