China set to be a winner in Ukraine war
Whatever the outcome, its invasion of Ukraine will leave Russia more weak, poor and isolated from the world. Economists estimate its GDP this year will fall by about 10 per cent from the 2021 level.
The big winner in the war is set to be China, the only major country not to condemn the invasion and to retain a high level of normal trade and economic relations with Russia.
After the war, it will be able to buy Russian oil and gas at cheaper prices, acquire Russian assets at a discount and attract talented people who are fleeing the country in fear it is returning to the closed-door, xenophobic Soviet era.
To achieve this goal, China and its companies must continue to walk the tightrope of the last eight weeks in trading with Russia but not crossing the line into helping its war effort. ...