2021年6月25日
〈假如2021香港有SPAC〉是我半年前的文章:
從合約經濟學的角度看,投資SPAC其實相當於投資一間未上市公司的私募基金,分別是散戶投資的入場門檻大降。進一步促進私募基金的發展,香港需要SPAC……香港金融圈,擁有高質素而具聲譽的管理團隊,新風天域的案例值得本地監管機構一再研究。殼股,在國際金融市場早已不再是股價被舞高弄低的細價股。
美國證交會兩度發聲明
半年之後,有報道指出港交所(00388)計劃今年就SPAC的上市框架展開公眾諮詢,目標是年內有首間SPAC掛牌。作為全港最早討論SPAC的經濟學者,這可能是我又一次「成功爭取」。然而,半年之間,美市經歷了SPAC由盛轉衰。2020年SPAC大熱,一年做了超過以往10年的生意;承接去年之勢,今年首季又做了多於去年的生意。但空白支票公司活動再創高峰後,4月的新SPAC上市竟大跌九成。
問題來了:如果這是SPAC的什麼泡沫爆破,港交所遲來的公眾諮詢是否不用做?但假如SPAC由盛轉衰是監管風險所致,這對香港未來的SPAC上市框架又有什麼啟示呢?
今年4月,美國證交會(SEC)前後發了兩段公開聲明:「SPACs, IPOs and Liability Risk under the Securities Laws」(8日)和「Staff Statement on Accounting and Reporting Considerations for Warrants Issued by Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs)」(12日),是導致近月SPAC市場活動驟跌的原因。關於責任風險(liability risk)的聲明,跟SPAC的披露有關。SEC有以下幾點質疑:
‧Are current liability protections for investors voting on or buying shares at the time of a de-SPAC sufficient if some SPAC sponsors or advisors are touting SPACs with vague assurances of lessened liability for disclosures?
‧Do current liability provisions give those involved – such as sponsors, private investors, and target managers – sufficient incentives to do appropriate due diligence on the target and its disclosures to public investors, especially since SPACs are designed not to include a conventional underwriter at the de- SPAC stage?
‧Moreover, is it appropriate that the choice of how to go public may determine or be determined by liability rules?
原來,de-SPAC(即SPAC找到收購目標後進行合併)一直被視為上市公司併購而非首次公開招股,因此享受較寬鬆的披露規管。最明顯的例子,在de-SPAC階段往往看到不少未有足夠理據支持的業務預測,這是傳統IPO不容許的。當這些預測出現嚴重偏頗,導致投資者損失的責任風險是誰來負擔?
學術分析不容忽視
關於認股證會計和報告考慮,SEC更直接提出:
‧the warrants should be classified as a liability measured at fair value, with changes in fair value each period reported in earnings.
把認股證歸類為負債而非權益,將可能影響SPAC的風險以及估值。
港交所就SPAC上市框架的公眾諮詢,除了要預備回應SEC對SPAC的關注,還有留心一篇學者的最新研究「A Sober Look at SPACs」,該學術文章發現:
Although SPACs raise $10 per share from investors in their IPOs, by the time the median SPAC merges with a target, it holds just $6.67 in cash for each outstanding share. We find, first, that for a large majority of SPACs, post-merger share prices fall, and second, that these price drops are highly correlated with the extent of dilution, or cash shortfall, in a SPAC. This implies that SPAC investors are bearing the cost of the dilution built into the SPAC structure, and in effect subsidizing the companies they bring public.
SPAC的結構性攤薄(dilution),是個更少財經評論員討論的問題。我希望港交所知道的並非SPAC不值得搞,而是怎樣搞才可以提升資本市場效率之餘,同時讓投資者方便接收到準確的市場資訊。
美國克林信大學經濟系副教授、香港大學香港經濟及商業策略研究所名譽高級研究員、中文大學香港亞太研究所經濟研究中心成員
http://www.facebook.com/economics3.0
(編者按:徐家健教授最新著作《經濟學說藝術投資》現已發售)
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