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2019年6月21日

郝承林 價值物語

畢非德看美國經濟

聯儲局終於透露減息跡象,這是否美國經濟將陷入衰退的警號?貿易戰會否拖垮美國經濟?現在股市的估值又會否太貴?如果嫌本地評論說不清,那麼不如聽聽畢非德(Warren Buffett)怎麼說。

致股東信 前瞻性強

儘管畢非德是價值投資者,多討論個股,但每次危機前夕,都能在其致股東信中見到端倪。如金融海嘯前,2007年的致股東信便寫到:"Our 76 operating businesses did well last year. The few that had problems were primarily those linked to housing and real estate brokerage operations... Some major financial institutions have, however, experienced staggering problems because they engaged in the 'weakened lending practices'. It is interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money."

即使雷曼兄弟當時還未崩塌,畢非德已聞到燶味,金融系統出了大問題。那麼問題的根源在哪裏呢?「Unfortunately, all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise... confident that HPA - house price appreciation - would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief.」事後回看,近乎百分百正確。股神之名,名不虛傳。

再早一點,1989年的致股東信中寫到對連年股市大漲感到不安。"While those prices may not yet cause nosebleeds, they are clearly vulnerable to a general market decline... it would cause at least a one-year reduction in Berkshire's net worth. We think such a reduction is almost certain in at least one of the next three years."結果不用三年,第二年股市便大跌了。

增速放緩 軌道未變

現在人人擔心美國經濟會陷入衰退,股市又升得太多太久,且看畢非德怎麼說。

去年的致股東信(今年3月發表)最後一段的標題便是The American Tailwind︰"Our country's almost unbelievable prosperity has been gained in a bipartisan manner...... Today, the Federal Reserve estimates our household wealth at $108 trillion, an amount almost impossible to comprehend."

"Americans will be both more prosperous and safer if all nations thrive. Over the next 77 years, however, the major source of our gains will almost certainly be provided by The American Tailwind. We are lucky - gloriously lucky - to have that force at our back."

畢非德並沒有對經濟前景或股市估值表現擔憂(丁點兒味道也沒有)。從鐵路營運數據來看,經濟增速似乎在放緩,但不是改變軌道。現在美國經濟或似經歷1994年墨西哥債務危機和1998年亞洲金融危機般的暫時放緩而減息,但不久後經濟便重回正軌,息口要到2000年底才見頂。

況且,過去每次都是息差先倒掛(2年期和10年期),股市才見頂。現在喊了衰退這麼久,息差也未倒掛,為何要擔心股市表現?投資者總是擔心現在才入市是否太遲,5年前是這樣,一年前也是這樣。事後回看,不是杞人憂天嗎?畢非德的倉位大那麼多,他也不擔心,你還要怕什麼?

筆者為證監會9號業務持牌人

[email protected]

(英文版本由EJ Insight翻譯

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